What’s Happening?
Northern Australian wheat prices have remained relatively firm despite falling global grain markets, according to Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ October 2026 Monthly Commodity Update.
The report places Brisbane APW1 wheat at $421 per tonne, approximately one-third above its level a year earlier. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures have fallen by around 18 per cent since late August, highlighting the contrasting movements between international and northern Australian markets.
Why It Matters
Australia’s wheat market is experiencing different pricing conditions across its major growing regions as a large but uneven harvest approaches.
While northern prices have held steady, South Australian and Victorian wheat bids have weakened in response to falling global markets and expectations of substantial harvest volumes. Bendigo Bank reports that bids in those states have given back approximately half of Chicago’s decline since August.
The differences highlight the growing importance of grain quality and location in determining market prices.
Local Impact
Recent rainfall has had little effect on northern wheat prices, with trading activity remaining limited despite the stronger market.
According to Bendigo Bank, feedlots secured grain supplies ahead of the rainfall and are now waiting for the larger southern harvest. This has kept buying activity subdued even as Brisbane wheat prices remain well above last year’s levels.
The report also notes that northern rainfall has contrasting effects on seasonal crops, with conditions that can damage winter crops providing benefits for summer crops.
By The Numbers
- 31 million tonnes: Australia’s estimated wheat production.
- 23.8 million tonnes: Argentina’s expected wheat harvest, its second-largest in 17 years.
- $27 per tonne: The reported premium for H2 wheat over Australian Standard White (ASW) wheat.
Zoom In
Grain protein is becoming an important factor in southern Australian wheat markets, where large harvest volumes are expected to increase supplies of lower-protein wheat.
Bendigo Bank reports that Australian Standard White wheat will face competition from cheaper Argentine grain from December. Higher-protein wheat, however, is attracting a premium as buyers distinguish between different grades.
The report points to 2016 as an example of how these price differences can widen during a large, low-protein harvest.
Zoom Out
International wheat markets are facing pressure from abundant northern hemisphere production and expectations of a substantial southern hemisphere harvest.
However, Bendigo Bank notes that grain quality remains uneven across major exporting countries. Canadian wheat protein levels are lower, while cold and cloudy conditions have affected grain filling in Argentina.
Brazil is also seeking higher-quality milling wheat, adding another consideration to global demand as buyers assess both supply and quality.
What To Look For Next?
Weather conditions during the southern Australian harvest will be an important factor in the coming weeks.
Bendigo Bank expects recent southern rainfall to support yields while potentially reducing protein levels, as much of the crop is still developing. However, the report warns that prolonged wet weather during November could damage mature grain and increase discounts for lower-quality wheat.
The bank identifies the price difference between APW1 and AGP1 wheat as an indicator to monitor for weather-related quality damage as harvesting progresses.